Why Food Prices Rise During Ramadan

Mohammad Nur Rianto Al Arif
(Professor at UIN Syarif Hidayatullah,
Secretary General of the Indonesian Lecturers Association (DPP ADI),
Board Member of IAEI,
Board Member of ISEI Jakarta Chapter)

Ramadan always brings unique social and economic dynamics to the lives of Muslim communities. On one hand, it is a spiritual moment that teaches self-restraint, simplicity, and social care.

On the other hand, economic reality shows a paradox: public consumption actually increases significantly. Demand rises sharply for various food items—rice, chicken, eggs, sugar, cooking oil, and ingredients for iftar snacks. This increase in consumption leads to higher food prices in the market.

The rise in food prices before and during Ramadan has become a recurring annual issue that draws attention from the public, media, and government. Price increases not only affect purchasing power but also risk triggering inflation and economic instability.

Therefore, maintaining food price stability during Ramadan is not merely a technical economic issue—it is also about social justice and public welfare.

This article examines, in an analytical and critical way, the challenges of food price stability during Ramadan, the factors influencing it, and the efforts needed to maintain balance between demand and supply amid ongoing economic dynamics.

Every Ramadan, consumption patterns shift significantly. While people normally eat three times a day, during Ramadan meals are concentrated into two main times: pre-dawn (suhoor) and breaking the fast (iftar).

Logically, fewer meal times should reduce consumption. In reality, consumption increases. Several factors explain this. First, the tradition of breaking the fast with a wide variety of food and drinks—such as sweet desserts, fried snacks, beverages, and full meals.

Second, increased social activities like group iftars with family, communities, and workplaces. Third, traditions of sharing food and giving charity. These factors significantly boost demand for food.

This increase is especially evident in strategic commodities such as rice, sugar, cooking oil, chicken, eggs, chili, and onions. When demand rises in a short period while supply does not increase proportionally, price pressure becomes inevitable.

In basic economic theory, rising demand without corresponding supply leads to higher prices. This is what often happens in both traditional and modern markets before Ramadan and Eid.

From a macroeconomic perspective, rising food prices during Ramadan are often referred to as seasonal inflation—periodic price increases that occur annually. This differs from structural inflation, which stems from deeper economic problems.

In Indonesia, Ramadan inflation is typically driven by fresh food prices. Commodities such as chili, shallots, garlic, and chicken often contribute most. Their prices are highly sensitive to production, distribution, and weather conditions.

However, calling it seasonal does not mean it should be ignored. Because it happens every year, the government should have more prepared strategies to anticipate it.

If not managed properly, rising food prices can significantly impact society, especially low-income groups. For poorer households, most spending goes toward food, so price increases directly reduce purchasing power and welfare.

One key factor in price stability is supply availability. When supply is sufficient and distribution runs smoothly, prices tend to remain stable. Otherwise, prices become volatile.

In Indonesia, challenges are not only about production but also distribution. As an archipelagic country with vast geography, distributing food from production areas to consumption areas is complex.

Many horticultural products are produced in specific regions, while demand is spread across the country. Disruptions—whether due to weather, transportation, or logistics—can limit supply and destabilize prices.

Additionally, Indonesia’s food supply chain is relatively long. From farmers to consumers, products pass through multiple intermediaries, each adding a margin. This raises consumer prices. During high-demand periods like Ramadan, this structure amplifies price increases.

Market behavior also plays a role. In some cases, hoarding and speculative pricing occur, where certain actors take advantage of increased demand. Such practices harm society and violate economic fairness.

In Islamic economics, hoarding for excessive profit is known as ihtikar and is strictly prohibited. Ramadan should strengthen ethical values in economic activity. Businesses are expected not only to pursue profit but also to uphold moral responsibility.

Maintaining fair prices and avoiding excessive profiteering reflect honesty and justice in trade.

Each year, the government implements policies to stabilize food prices during Ramadan. One common measure is market operations—selling food at lower prices to curb price increases. The government also monitors prices closely across regions.

Coordination between central and local governments ensures supply availability. Import policies are sometimes used to supplement supply when domestic production falls short, although they often spark debate due to potential impacts on local farmers.

Strengthening government food reserves is also a key strategy. With sufficient reserves, the government can intervene when prices rise abnormally.

In today’s digital era, technology offers major potential to improve food system efficiency. Digitalization can shorten distribution chains, increase price transparency, and improve access to information for businesses and consumers.

Digital platforms can connect farmers directly with traders or consumers, reducing reliance on intermediaries. Price information systems also help people monitor market prices, reducing manipulation and supporting healthier market mechanisms.

Food price stability depends not only on policy and business behavior but also on consumer behavior. In many cases, price increases are worsened by excessive consumption.

Ramadan teaches simplicity and self-control. Yet in practice, people often buy more food than needed, leading to waste. This creates a paradox: some waste food, while others struggle to meet basic needs.

Therefore, building consumer awareness to shop wisely and avoid excess is an important part of maintaining price stability.

Every year, the issue of rising food prices during Ramadan reappears, showing that the problem has not been fully resolved structurally. Ramadan should be a moment for reflection and improvement of the national food system.

Strengthening domestic production, improving distribution systems, utilizing digital technology, and building food reserves are key strategies that must continue to be developed.

At the same time, moral and ethical values in economic activity must be reinforced. Ramadan teaches that the economy is not only about profit, but also about justice, care, and shared prosperity.

If all stakeholders—government, businesses, and consumers—fulfill their roles properly, maintaining food price stability during Ramadan is achievable.

Maintaining food price stability during Ramadan is a complex challenge involving economic, social, and behavioral factors. Demand surges, supply constraints, distribution issues, and speculation all shape price movements.

However, within these challenges lies an opportunity to build a more efficient, fair, and sustainable food system. Ramadan is not only a time of increased consumption, but also a chance to strengthen ethical values in economic life.

With the right policies, efficient distribution, and collective awareness, food price stability during Ramadan can be better maintained. Ultimately, success in maintaining price stability contributes not only to economic stability but also to broader social justice and public welfare.

This article was published in Kompas on Monday, March 9, 2026.