Indonesian Political Kaleidoscope 2024
Various recent political events that took place throughout 2024 have captured the public's attention.
Long story short, there were two most phenomenal political events, the breakup of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) between PDI-P and the election of Prabowo Subianto as the 8th President of Indonesia.
Other political events, such as the simultaneous regional governor elections in 545 regions across the country, have been subdued with low levels of political participation.
Of course, no one expected the relationship between Jokowi and his big family to end tragically along with PDI-P. 23 years of mutual cooperation vanished without any traces left.
The crisis began with Jokowi's defiance of the PDI-P's decision in the 2024 presidential election. Instead of supporting Ganjar Pranowo as the PDI-P candidate, Jokowi endorsed his son as a vice president candidate paired with Prabowo Subianto. Eventhough at that time, Gibran Rakabuming was still its cadre.
No one could believe that Jokowi had performed such an extreme political stunt that no politician had ever done before. Jokowi not only went against his own party, but also teamed up with Prabowo who has been his political rival for two election periods.
Jokowi is quite phenomenal because his political turns are very unpredictable. In fact, he is the only president in this country who stands against his own party.
Soekarno, Soeharto, BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur), Megawati Soekarnoputri, and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono did not seem to have any problems with the party that raised them in the first place. Gus Dur did have a dispute with Muhaimin Iskandar over the legality of party management, but not with PKB.
Many people have speculated about Jokowi's motive for going against the PDI-P. Starting from his desire to show himself as a political king maker. He does not accept that he had always been underestimated as a “party worker”, as well as the accusation that he wanted to prolong his political dynasty.
Whatever it is, Jokowi has officially been tragically betrayed by the PDI-P.
The Enemy of My Enemy is My Friend
In addition to oppose the PDI-P, Jokowi in the 2024 elections collaborated with Prabowo who has been his political rival since the previous two presidential elections.
There is hardly any similar political event in any country, where two political rivals who competed fiercely for ten years come united. Random coalitions, flexible coalitions, and even coalitions without patterns are only the hallmarks of Indonesian politics, which adheres to a multiparty presidential system (Dan Slater, 2018).
Jokowi wants to show his political status as a president, not a party worker. Throughout the presidential election campaign, Jokowi was busy showing gestures of preference for Prabowo-Gibran.
The effect of Jokowi's endorsement as president has proven effective in providing significant electoral benefits. Various surveys reveal the fact that people who claim to be satisfied with Jokowi's performance, especially with the social assistance program, tend to support Prabowo-Gibran over other candidates. This is the so-called circular effect from Jokowi to the supported candidate.
The alliance with Prabowo also seems to be used as a proving ground for Jokowi to show his prowess while trying to embarrass PDI-P in three different ways at once.
First, taking out Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD in one round of the presidential election. Second, eliminating PDI-P votes in the legislative elections. Third, passing the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI). which at the time claimed to be the only “Jokowi's party”, into the parliament. This was intended to undermine Jokowi's voter base which was still wavering with the PDI-P.
During the presidential election, the PDI-P proved to be completely decimated. Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD went down with only 16.47 percent of the vote which is far below than Prabowo-Gibran on 58.58 percent of the vote.
However, in the legislative elections, the PDI-P remained the winner despite its vote share dropping by around 3 percent compared to the previous legislative elections on 2019.
Of course, the most tragic thing is that PSI still failed to make its way to the parliament despite the efforts to get PSI to Senayan. Such as, encouraging the PSI as Jokowi's party, even appointed his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep as its chairman.
The political beneficiary of the civil war between Jokowi and PDI-P is only Prabowo, who has been elected as the president. One of the key factors in Prabowo winning the presidential election was his total coalition with Jokowi, his former political rival.
Prabowo's Epic Comeback
Prabowo Subianto being elected as the president of Indonesia is certainly the most viral political calendar throughout t2024. After a long, twisty, and steep political struggle, the chairman of the Gerindra Party finally wins the presidential election.
Prabowo's journey to become the number one person in Indonesia is pretty heroic. Since 2004, Prabowo has dreamed of becoming the president through the Golkar convention.
Despite losing the convention, the former Commander General of Special Forces (Danjen Kopassus) founded Gerindra Party in 2008 as a political vehicle to run for the 2009 presidential election in a pair with Megawati. However, he lost to the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - Jusuf Kalla pair. Prabowo lost again in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections to Jokowi.
The slogan semper fi is very much attached to Prabowo. It took almost 20 years for this former Defense Minister to emerge as the supreme leader of Indonesia.
He proved that “There is no point of back down in politics”.
This article is written by Adi Prayitnoa, a lecturer in Political Science at FISIP UIN Jakarta and Executive Director of Political Parameters, and published in the opinion section of Kompas Newspaper on 31th Dec 2024.