How to Fulfill 19 Million Promises before Indonesia 2029

Mohammad Nur Rianto Al Arif Professor at UIN Syarif Hidayatullah
Secretary General of the Indonesian Lecturers Association (DPP)
Assistant to the President's Special Envoy for Food Security

"If we can oversee the equitable development agenda for the transition to green energy, the creative economy, and MSMEs, Inshaallah, 19 million jobs will be created, 5 million of which will be in the green job sector." Gibran Rakabuming, the elected Vice President of Indonesia, stated in the vice presidential debate agenda at JCC Senayan on Sunday (21 January, 2024).

It is one of the biggest promises made by the government during the new leadership period in the next five years.

This sentence is not just a political promise made during the campaign, but an ambitious target that will serve as a benchmark for the future success of Indonesia's economic development.

This grand promise naturally sparked hope among the public, especially the younger generation, who enter the workforce in significant numbers each year.

However, behind the optimism, there is always a question: how realistic are these promises, and what strategies are being prepared to truly realize them?

To understand the urgency of the job creation promise, we must look at the latest data on employment conditions.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported in August 2025 that Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 reached 5.12 percent year-on-year (yoy), slightly stronger than the previous quarter's 4.87 percent.

This growth continues to be supported by household consumption, investment, and exports of key commodities.

However, the competition in the job market remains tight. The Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) as of February 2025 was recorded at around 4.76 percent, with the number of unemployed people being approximately 7.28 million.

This condition makes the promise of creating 19 million jobs not just an additional program, but a structural necessity. Without a surge in job creation, this demographic bonus could turn into a demographic burden.

Imagine, if 2.5 million new people enter the workforce each year, then in five years the number would already be over 12 million.

Adding to the existing unemployed people, the minimum job creation needed currently is reaching almost 20 million.

In other words, this government target is not excessive ambition, but rather a reflection of the reality of needs.

Although opportunities are wide open, the challenges faced are also considerable, adding the fact that the quality of Indonesia's workforce remains a fundamental issue.

BPS recorded the highest unemployment rate among high school graduates at 8 percent, followed by high school graduates (6.35 percent).

Additionally, college graduates still contribute a significant number, with 4.84 percent holding a Diploma I, II, or III, and 6.23 percent holding a Diploma IV, Bachelor's, Master's, or Doctoral degree. The lowest figures are for elementary school graduates at 2.3 percent and junior high school graduates at 4.35 percent.

This condition makes it difficult for the government to fill the labor needs in modern sectors that require higher skills.

Additionally, the issue of mismatch between education graduates and the needs of the job market still frequently occurs with many university graduates are not absorbed by the employment market because their skills do not align with the industrial needs.

Beside the quality of human resources, another problem is regional inequality where the economic growth remains concentrated in Java and parts of Sumatra, while eastern Indonesia almost completely lags behind.

In fact, the potential for natural resources and tourism in the area is enormous. If development is unevenly distributed, job creation can become even more skewed, concentrated only in certain areas, while other regions remain behind.

At least there are several key sectors that have the potential to boost job creation.

The first is downstreaming the manufacturing sector. The government has prepared a program for downstreaming natural resources, such as nickel, bauxite, and palm oil, which is expected to create millions of jobs from upstream to downstream. It is not just about exporting raw materials, but about building value-added industries domestically which could absorb a large number of workers, both during the factory construction phase, operations, and supporting industries such as logistics and services.

The second is the improvement of the modern agricultural sector. Although the agricultural sector remains the largest employer, most of its workers are in the informal category with low productivity. Transforming agriculture toward a modern agribusiness system, utilizing technology, and integrating with the food industry also increases job absorption and improve farmer welfare. Moreover, the government's food sovereignity program can also be a catalyst for attracting young people back to this sector, of course with adequate incentives and technological support.

The third is securing the digital and creative economy sector. Data shows that the digital sector is growing much faster than the national average economic growth such as startups in digital commerce, technology-based financial services, and creative content are able to absorb labor, which come from tech-savvy. If the government can foster an inclusive digital ecosystem, from internet access to regulatory support, millions of new jobs can be formed.

The fourth is expanding the tourism sector. Indonesia, with all its natural beauty, culture, and maritime wealth, has incredible potential to develop tourism as a job creation engine. Tourism is not just about hotels and restaurants, but about creating a creative economic ecosystem from performing arts, crafts, and cuisine to local transportation.

The fifth is supporting MSMEs. It cannot be forgotten that MSMEs are the backbone of the national economy, absorbing over 97 percent of the workforce. The main challenges for MSMEs are access to capital, technology, and markets. If the government can provide support in the form of incentives, digitalization training, and wider market access, then MSMEs can become a major pillar in creating millions of jobs.

The sixth is building a green industrial environment. The world is now moving toward a clean energy transition where Indonesia still has great potential for developing renewable energy, ranging from solar, wind, geothermal, to bioenergy. This industry is not only important for environmental sustainability, but also has the potential to create new jobs, ranging from technicians and engineers to local supply chains.

The experiences of other countries can be an interesting comparison. China, for example, is able to absorb hundreds of millions of workers in a few decades thru massive industrialization, supported by massive vocational education and job training policies. Additionally, Vietnam has also successfully increased employment absorption by becoming a global manufacturing base thanks to its industry-friendly investment policies.

Meanwhile, India is an interesting example of how the digital sector can be a massive job creation. The wave of technology companies and outsourcing has made India the birthplace of millions of new workers in the field of information technology services.

In this way, Indonesia must learn from these countries, by creating a competitive industrial ecosystem while simultaneously improving the quality of its workforce to meet those needs.

Although it is not as simply as flipping a hand, the lesson to be learned is the importance of preparing the workforce with digital skills from an early age.

If we make a projection, assuming an average economic growth of 5-6 percent per year, the new workforce in the next five years could reach 12-13 million people.

Adding to the existing unemployment, the need for job creation is around 20 million. This means the government's target of 19 million jobs is indeed aligned with structural needs.

However, this achievement is only possible if productivity increases. Based on previous trends, every 1 percent of economic growth is capable of creating approximately 400,000–500,000 new jobs.

If the economy grows by 5 percent, then approximately 2 million–2.5 million jobs will be added per year. In five years, that's about 12 million—still far from the target of 19 million.

Therefore, extra strategies are needed, not just to boost growth, but also to ensure that growth is labor-intensive and inclusive.

The history of Indonesia's development also records many promises of job creation. During the New Order era, industrialization and infrastructure projects had already realized this idea, although much of this was characterized by informal, low-wage work.

In the Reformation era, the promise of job creation always resurfaces, but it often runs into obstacles due to global economic crises or political uncertainty.

Previous presidents also made job creation as a top priority, but the results often fell short of expectations.

This time, the promise of 19 million jobs carries a different weight because it comes at the peak of the demographic dividend.

If not utilized properly, this bonus can become a significant burden. Therefore, the public has a strong reason to consistently hold the government accountable for this promise.

If the promise of creating 19 million jobs is truly realized, the impact will be enormous. The unemployment rate can be pushed down to a very low level. People's purchasing power has increased, thus driving more inclusive economic growth.

Social stability is also better maintained, as high unemployment often triggers social vulnerability and crime.

However, conversely, if this promise is not realized, the risks faced are also significant. This blessing can turn into a curse, where many educated young people do not have decent jobs.

This can lead to social frustration, low political stability, and even hinder the pace of national development.

Ultimately, waiting for the government's promises does not mean simply sitting idly and waiting. The public, academics, the business world, and civil society all have an important role to play in overseeing and ensuring that this promise is truly fulfilled.

The government needs to maintain data transparency, policy consistency, and openness in accepting criticism and feedback.

In this way, this beautiful promise can be transformed into tangible achievements that bring widespread benefits to our nation.

The public's hope is certainly simple: that the promise of creating 19 million jobs is not just a number, but a real opportunity for millions of people to achieve a better life.

That every young person who graduates from school or college is no longer haunted by the fear of not finding a job, but rather confident that opportunities are always open.

The most important thing is that economic development grows not only on paper, but is truly felt down to the lowest levels of society.

This article was published in Kompas on Wednesday (August 20, 2025).