From Festive Euphoria to Financial Reality

Mohammad Nur Rianto Al Arif
(Professor at UIN Syarif Hidayatullah,
Secretary General of the Indonesian Lecturers Association,
Board Member of IAEI,
Board Member of ISEI Jakarta Chapter)

Every year, Muslims in Indonesia welcome Eid al-Fitr with great joy. Eid is not only a religious celebration but also a major social and economic event.

It brings collective euphoria—from mass homecoming travel, surging consumption, and buying new clothes to sharing through zakat and holiday allowances (THR).

Within a few weeks, the economy moves faster. Markets become crowded, and economic activity rises sharply.

However, behind this excitement lies an often overlooked reality: financial pressure after Ramadan.

The peak of consumption before Eid often leaves serious problems for households, especially for lower- and middle-income groups.

This raises an important question: does Eid truly bring prosperity, or does it deepen economic vulnerability?

This article critically examines the contrast between Eid euphoria and post-Ramadan economic reality, focusing on consumption dynamics, purchasing power, and long-term impacts on household economic structure.

It is undeniable that Eid is one of the main drivers of domestic consumption in Indonesia. In the GDP structure, household consumption contributes more than 50 percent, with Ramadan–Eid as its peak.

During this period, demand increases across almost all sectors—from food and beverages, transportation, and fashion to tourism.

Bank Indonesia even prepares large amounts of cash to support public transactions.

In 2026, the amount reached around Rp185.6 trillion. Of this, Rp177 trillion was allocated for banking needs, including ATM withdrawals and branch services.

The homecoming tradition (mudik) is a key driver of this economic movement. The movement of millions of people from cities to villages creates large-scale economic redistribution.

Money that was concentrated in urban areas flows into regions through consumption, remittances, and social activities.

However, recent data shows a weakening trend.

The Ministry of Transportation projects 143.9 million travelers in 2026, down from 146.48 million in 2025, and far below 193.6 million in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (Kadin) estimates money circulation during Eid 2026 at Rp161.8 trillion.

Despite fewer travelers, average household spending has increased. This is expected to support economic growth in Q1 2026 at around 5.4–5.5 percent.

The decline in travelers indicates changing economic behavior.

If previously mudik was seen as almost mandatory, now many households reconsider it based on financial considerations. Several factors drive this shift: rising living costs, layoffs, pressure on real income, and global uncertainty.

As a result, consumption continues, but not as aggressively as before.

Although macro data shows growth, consumption patterns are changing. Ramadan 2026 shows that consumption is no longer driven purely by euphoria but by more rational economic calculations.

People still spend, but more selectively—considering needs, wants, and financial capacity.

Global uncertainty, including the conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, which drives up energy and logistics costs, also makes people more cautious.

To maintain consumption, the government introduced several stimulus measures in early 2026.

These include VAT incentives for domestic economy-class airline tickets, ticket discounts, and Flexible Working Arrangements (FWA) for public and private workers.

The government also distributed food assistance—rice and cooking oil—to 35.04 million beneficiary families at the start of Ramadan.

These fiscal measures aim to support purchasing power, especially for low-income groups.

This shows a key reality: purchasing power still needs support. On one hand, consumption rises due to THR, fiscal stimulus, retail discounts, and mobility.

On the other hand, structural pressures remain—global uncertainty, rising living costs, and slowing middle-class growth.

In other words, consumption in 2026 grows, but it is partly supported by stimulus, not purely by strong fundamentals.

In Indonesia, Eid is not just about ritual worship—it also carries strong social meaning.

Buying new clothes, giving THR, serving the best food, and returning to hometowns all have social dimensions.

This creates symbolic consumption. Many households increase spending even with limited finances to maintain social image and meet expectations.

As a result, many deplete savings, use loans (including online loans), or delay other financial obligations.

Eid euphoria becomes a double-edged sword—strengthening social cohesion but weakening household financial resilience.

After Eid, many households enter what can be called an “economic hangover.” High spending during Ramadan and Eid leaves significant impacts.

Common post-Eid realities include:

First, reduced household liquidity. Depleted savings make it harder to meet routine expenses.

Second, rising consumer debt. The use of credit and short-term loans increases, especially in urban areas.

Third, sharp consumption adjustment. After high spending, households cut expenses significantly.

Fourth, rising financial and psychological pressure.

This shows that Eid is not always a moment of prosperity but often part of an unsustainable consumption cycle.

From a macroeconomic perspective, Eid consumption boosts growth, especially in the first quarter.

But the question remains: is it sustainable?

Data shows consumption growth during Ramadan 2025 was only around 5–7 percent, lower than 9–12 percent in previous years. This indicates a structural slowdown in purchasing power. Eid, in this context, is more of a temporary boost than sustained growth.

It increases short-term activity but cannot solve deeper issues such as income stagnation, inequality, and labor market vulnerability.

Another common narrative is that mudik creates economic redistribution.

However, this redistribution is not always even. Around 60 percent of Eid transactions are still concentrated in Java.

Other regions only receive a smaller share. Not all groups have equal capacity to participate in consumption. Low-income groups are more vulnerable to post-Eid pressure.

Thus, Eid reflects not only solidarity but also economic inequality. Given these dynamics, it is important to rethink the economic meaning of Eid.

Should it always be associated with high consumption? Or can it become a moment for more sustainable economic strengthening?

Several steps can be considered.

First, financial literacy based on religious values—integrating simplicity and financial management into Ramadan narratives.

Second, transforming zakat management toward empowerment—shifting from short-term consumption to long-term economic programs.

Third, strengthening local economies—encouraging consumption of MSME products with long-term impact.

Fourth, improving household financial planning—encouraging budgeting for Ramadan–Eid spending. Eid will always be a special moment in Indonesian life. It is where spirituality, culture, and economy meet.

But in an increasingly complex economy, balance is needed between tradition and rationality.

Eid euphoria should not be removed but managed.

Consumption remains important but must be accompanied by financial awareness.

In the end, the success of Eid is not measured by how much we spend but by how well we balance short-term happiness with long-term well-being.

This article was published in KOMPAS on Friday, March 27, 2026.